beijing, nov. 30 (xinhua finance) -- china's economic growth remains stable in the fourth quarter of this year and the main targets for the whole year can be achieved, according to the china macroeconomic report 2019-2020 released at the china macroeconomic forum on tuesday. at the same time, downward pressure on the macro economy will ease in 2020, and there are ten positive factors that deserve high attention and should be consolidated and cultivated.
the forum is hosted by the national institute of development and strategy, school of economics, renmin university of china, and china integrity international credit rating co., ltd., and hosted by the institute of economics, renmin university of china.
the report argues that the effect of tax cuts and fee reductions is continuing and will be most pronounced at the end of the year, when a large number of tax levies and deductions will be felt most fully. in addition, the investment and growth effect brought by the issuance of special bonds in the first three quarters had a certain lag period, and the policy effect will be further reflected in the fourth quarter. in addition, the easing of trade frictions has provided positive support for short-term market confidence. as a result, china's gdp growth rate is expected to stabilize at around 6.1% in the fourth quarter of this year, and the target range for the whole year is 6%-6.5%.
liu yuanchun, vice president of renmin university of china and professor of economics, pointed out in a report released at the forum that trend forces and structural forces will continue to exert force in 2019, while many cyclical forces will change at an inflection point in 2020. through the calculation and analysis of the cycle phase and various economic parameters, it is found that some cyclical forces will reverse in 2020, and china's institutional dividend will continue to improve, which makes the macroeconomic operation have ten positive factors.
first, china's institutional dividend is expected to rise across the board in 2020, with significant improvement in tfp(total factor productivity) growth. according to the estimation of the research team of the report, in the past two years, the growth rate of tfp began to turn from negative to positive, and is in the stage of gradual recovery, indicating that the reform and adjustment in the past period began to release institutional dividends.
in terms of financial environment, according to the report, along with all kinds of the stability of the leverage ratio, cope with debt growth decline, high-risk institutions of orderly disposal, financial institutions from the capital gap, the improvement of the supervisory board, made the financial risk to convergence, a phased victory for defuse financial risks to be completed, the financial environment will be improved significantly. at present, the effect of marginal easing of monetary policy has begun to appear, and the capital of enterprises has been enriched and operational funds have been relatively improved, indicating that the adjustment process has begun to get better gradually.
in terms of the inventory cycle of enterprises, the report points out that the bottoming out and recovery in 2020 will be a high probability event, and the excessive destocking in the early stage provides a large space for enterprises to replenish inventory in 2020.
in terms of foreign trade, the report argues that despite the uncertainty of china-us trade frictions, the expectations and confidence of various economic entities have adjusted, and business confidence will return significantly after the panic period.
at the same time, various strategies launched in response to external shocks will effectively improve the effective demand of the corresponding departments, especially those launched in key technologies, scientific and technological research and development system, domestic substitution, important equipment and other aspects will have a good pull effect.
the report predicts that china's auto market may stabilize as the global auto cycle reverses. the global auto cycle is likely to bottom out in 2020 as auto trade and sales growth pick up, leading to improvements in manufacturing.
on the price side, the report argues that with the reversal of the pig cycle and the normalization of pork supply and demand, the sharp drop in pork prices will provide room for macro policies and improve people's consumption expectations.
in terms of private investment, the report argues that private investment will break out of the bottom by 2020, as infrastructure investment continues to improve, investment by state-owned enterprises continues to rise, and private entrepreneurs' expectations improve.
on the policy front, the report predicts that a new round of more aggressive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy of marginal easing will gain momentum, which, together with other social policy dividends and the global policy dividend from globally synchronized easing, will make the policy dividend in 2020 larger than in previous years.
in addition, china's huge market, diversified export routes, complete industries, abundant human resources, and the beginning of the popularity of innovation awareness and innovation competition determine the resilience and resilience of the chinese economy will be further strengthened in 2020.
the report suggests that, taking into account both international and domestic trends and cyclical factors at the current stage, china should set a range management target of 5.5-6% for its economic growth in 2020, rather than sticking to a target of more than 6%.
source: china financial information net