the international monetary fund (imf) released its world economic outlook report on april 6, predicting that china's economy will grow 8.4 percent this year, up 0.3 percentage points from its january forecast.
"the imf's upward revision of china's growth forecast was to be expected. many institutions and experts had predicted that china's economy would grow by more than 8 percent this year. a number of leading indicators for the first quarter show that china's economy continues to recover and grow faster than expected." national development and reform commission price monitoring center senior economist liu manping think.
in fact, optimistic about the performance of china's economy this year has been the general consensus. earlier, the world bank also released a report that said it expects china's economic growth to accelerate to 8.1 percent this year, which will push growth in the east asia and pacific region to 7.4 percent this year from 1.2 percent last year.
the performance of the chinese economy so far this year also supports this consensus.
just past the tomb-sweeping day holiday, the domestic tourism consumption market bright spring. domestic tourists made 102 million trips, an increase of 144.6 percent year-on-year on a comparable basis, and a recovery to 94.5 percent of the pre-epidemic level. sales revenue of the accommodation and catering industry during the qingming festival has exceeded the same level in 2019, according to vat invoice data released by the state administration of taxation.
since the beginning of this year, china's economy has maintained a good momentum of growth. in the first two months of this year, major indicators of consumption, investment, import and export, industrial added value and the service sector all maintained a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30 percent.
a leading indicator data, also released a strong sense of warmth. china's electricity consumption rose 22.24 percent year on year from january to february to 1,258.8 billion kilowatt-hours, with the three major industries all increasing by more than 20 percent, according to data released by the china electricity federation. according to data released by the china construction machinery association, the 26 excavator manufacturers included in the association's statistics sold 28,300 excavators in february, up 205% year on year. china's manufacturing purchasing managers' index, non-manufacturing business activity index and composite pmi output index all rebounded in march, remaining above the demarcation line between expansion and contraction for 13 consecutive months, indicating that the recovery momentum of the chinese economy is continuing.
liu manping believes that at present, china's economy is accelerating recovery. from the external environment, the world economy is on the road to recovery, global demand has picked up significantly, and china's export of various commodities has soared with the accelerating speed of overseas covid-11 vaccination.
"internally, china's economy has strong resilience under the dual role of market and policy." for example, under the guidance of "stable investment," domestic investment in real estate and infrastructure has seen a recovery growth and accelerated the recovery of the manufacturing sector, liu said. as the results of the epidemic prevention and control continue to consolidate, domestic consumer demand continues to release, the service sector is picking up speed, and automobile consumption plays a significant role in driving the recovery. since the beginning of this year, a series of measures to cut taxes and fees have effectively restored business and healthy development of enterprises, especially micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, and stimulated the vitality of market entities.
wang jun, chief economist of central china bank, said that thanks to effective epidemic prevention and control measures since last year, china's economy has maintained a good recovery momentum on both sides of supply and demand. with the gradual promotion of domestic vaccination, offline economic activities are increasingly active, and the recovery of consumer demand shows further signs of accelerating. combined with the improvement of the external environment and the introduction of a new round of global economic stimulus policies, china's economy will continue to maintain rapid recovery growth under the combined action of internal and external factors.
"although growth in the first quarter may exceed expectations, the macroeconomic operation still faces many challenges and risks. for example, the recovery in consumption is relatively weak, there are worries about the recovery in investment, risks to fiscal sustainability, financial and debt risks, and imported inflationary pressures." liu manping said.
china's economy still faces many challenges and uncertainties, wang said, adding that the country's future economic operation needs to focus on resolving the problems of fragmentation and structural imbalance in economic recovery.
"from a policy perspective, china's economy is still in the recovery period after the outbreak, structural demand will continue to be in the future the main contradiction, macroeconomic internal and external requirements of continuous change of macro policy put forward new requirements, need to cross cycle regulation to both short-term volatility and long-term development, in order to solve the structural and long-term issues in the process of economic development." wang jun believes that this year's macro policies should maintain continuity, stability and sustainability, from last year's "emergency mode" to the "normal mode" gradually shift, targeted at specific groups of the rescue policies should not be too hasty retreat, especially the monetary policy needs to be "stable" word. we will focus on providing necessary support to consumer spending, small and medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing, rural residents, and the central and western regions.
liu manping believes that the epidemic prevention and control and vaccination work should be continued to encourage enterprises to resume work and production. we still need to give top priority to ensuring stability in our macro policies, but we need to put greater emphasis on the precision of our fiscal and monetary policies and increase support for small and micro businesses. we will accelerate the optimization and upgrading of industrial chains and supply chains, foster and expand competitive industrial clusters, enhance core industrial competitiveness, and consolidate china's export advantages.
liu suggested a multi-pronged approach to improve residents' willingness and ability to consume and increase the proportion of consumption in total demand, including income distribution reform, related tax reform and improvement of the social security system. we will further cut taxes and fees, reduce unnecessary costs and expenditures in circulation, and defuse imported inflationary pressure. we will strengthen risk prevention and control in the fiscal and financial sectors and strike a balance between economic recovery and risk prevention. we will further deepen reform of the market system, energize market entities and unleash the potential of the chinese economy.
source: state-owned assets and administration commission of the state council